Through four decades of change-from Nikita Khruschev through Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko,  Gorbachev, Yelstin and now Putin, and from Dwight Eisenhower through Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton and now Bush the second-Fidel Castro has held court in Havana. Against long odds, a crushing embargo and the virtual collapse of communism on the world stage, this charismatic Cuban dictator and self proclaimed hero of the people has maintained the power he first seized when he stepped out of the jungles in 1959.

To say that few predicted he would last four decades misses the bigger point.  Few predicted he would last four years.  But last he has.

However, time will eventually prove one enemy Fidel can't best.  What JFK and his troops failed to engineer at the Bay of Pigs old age soon will. Fidel Castro will turn seventy-five on August 13th, and though he is showing few tangible signs of slowing down, the conversations about him have changed.  Today the question is no longer how he might be removed, but what will happen when he is gone.

And one of the groups most interested in the answer is the church. In fact, on both sides of the 90 mile strip of salt water that separates them Key West from Matanzas Bay , and in many hundreds of miles in all directions, Christians are wondering what a post Castro Cuba will look like.  And more specifically they are wondering if the indigenous church will be able to survive the onslaught of attention she is almost certain to receive once the embargo is lifted.

Transitions are never easy, especially those that follow over forty years of one-man rule.  But the combination of Cuba's location, her general allure, and her poor economy-which gives Americans unconscionable buying power-make it likely that as many as 500,000 visitors, 200,000 from southern Florida alone, will descend on the island within twenty-four months of it's opening.  Many of these will be Christians trying to help. The pressing question is, will they?

Haiti, which is located just off the tip of Cuba's Southeast corner, is a testimony to America's good intentions gone bad. And increasingly American church leaders are admitting that the evangelistic and humanitarian aid that flooded into Eastern Europe following the fall of the Berlin Wall had a variety of effects-not all of them positive. Cuban church leaders are aware of both situations and are concerned that they may be next. In fact, Teo Babun, the Executive Director of ECHO-Cuba, an evangelical ministry designed to help coordinate American social and mission efforts to the island, recently said, "Though it may come as a surprise to some Christians in America, one hundred percent of the Cuban Church leaders I've talked to are scared at what will happen when relations with the US are fully normalized. They are fearful that they will be overwhelmed with well intended but uncoordinated and ultimately crushing aid."

What Next: How the church will respond will depend on the situation they are responding to.  Possible scenarios abound.  The position of the Cuban government is that Raul Castro, Fidel's younger, and more hawkish, brother, will assume power.  And steps are being taken to shore up his standing.  Yet analysts believe other options are likely. Some suspect that a military leader may emerge to challenge Raul.  Others have hinted at civil war.  And no one is ignoring the well-financed shadow government that is set up in Miami and planning to step into power at the first opportunity. 

Each of these scenarios would present a different set of challenges to the church. If a new-pro USA government-emerges, and both Havana and Washington DC suddenly drop all travel and trade restrictions, a scene reminiscent of the 1980 boat lift will likely occur.  Hundreds of people from both Cuba and Florida will take the waters, half to escape and half to rescue those escaping. This would be followed by a massive invasion of relief workers, real-estate barons, pornographers and tourists, not to mention the Mormon Church, the Jehovah's Witnesses and a representative from just about every mission-minded church in the United States.

"If all restrictions are quickly removed," says Dr. Tony Ramos, Professor of Church History at the South Florida Center for Theological Studies and past moderator of the Miami Baptist Association, "you will have chaos.  And the church, bless her heart, will be part of it.  In fact, you can expect every church from Juno, Alaska to Padukah, Kentucky to send someone to Cuba.  And furthermore, you can be certain that once they are there they will find a Cuban who will be willing to pastor a new church or spearhead a new relief effort.  It will be chaos-but of course, that is the nature of Protestantism."

On the other end of the spectrum is the possibility that the new Cuban government will continue to restrict access to the island or, more possibly, that it will limit relief or church related teams to those that are already affiliated with the denominations present and active today.  

The problem is, no one knows which scenario to expect, and planning is hampered by many factors.

· The Church's Inability to Participate in Scenario Planning: Church leaders in Cuba are unable to take part in any discussions that suggest the revolution is failing.  And, in fact, in recent months the Castro regime has been clamping down on all Cuban citizens to make certain they are able to maintain firm control going forward.

· The Protestant - Catholic Dilemma: The Catholic Church enjoys substantial influence in Cuba, especially following the Pope's celebrated visit there three years ago.  However cooperation between Protestants and Catholics in Cuba has never reached the level of dialogue found in the States.  Furthermore, given the Catholic Church's struggle to maintain membership in Latin America, especially against the surge of Pentecostal growth, it is unlikely that they will want to join in any high profile partnerships that may legitimize Protestant church's in the eyes of Catholic members.

· The Division Between Protestant Churches: And in truth, the division between the Protestants and Catholics may be small compared to the rift between those Protestant churches that cooperated with the government-and which are a part of the official Cuban Council of Churches-and those that have not.  Jack Graves, Vice President of Overseas Council, an Indianapolis-based ministry focused on developing theological education in the Third World, believes that Castro has deliberately fostered this divide in order to blunt the power of the church.  He further believes that it will take some time before church leaders-who have spent decades in a culture where it is prudent to be suspicious of just about everyone-learn to trust each other.

· The Impact of New Money: Finally, given the power of US megachurches-many of which are less than forty years old and consequently do not have any formal ties to churches on the island-it is likely that those with the most money to donate will be those without any existing relationships with the indigenous church. "Without question most of the mission money that will be brought to the island will come from independent churches," says Ramos.  "The established denominations are unlikely to move as quickly or to have as much money to direct our way.  This dynamic will further exacerbate the confusion."  

The Impact of US Money: One only has to understand how fragile the Cuban economy is to realize how much of an effect the US dollar will have. Currently the average Cuban worker makes $9.50 per month. Setting aside the internal problems Castro's successors already face-surgeons make $30.00 per month while bell hops totting Western suitcases make $30.00 per day-the economic inequity between Cuba and the United States will entice American churches to try to buy solutions to Cuba's woes.  And the unintended consequences will be staggering.  "Consider what will happen if an American church decides to 'adopt' a Cuban pastor," says Babun.  "They may offer to pay him $200 per month, a salary well below the cost of supporting a Western missionary.  Further, they may offer to send a second $200 per month for him to administer for evangelism and social action. This seems so reasonable to them and a good investment in the kingdom.  But in the twinkling of an eye they have upset the balance of our work. Now this man is one of the richest and most powerful men around. His fellow pastors will look at him differently.  And, of course, many will seek similar arrangements with different churches in the US.  You will soon have a church on every corner, each with its own programs.  All competing with each other.  It will not be healthy."

Graves agrees.  "If the American Church wants to see the downside of their misguided benevolence they need look no further than Haiti. We bear direct responsibility for creating a culture of beggars.  Why would anyone work when so many people are giving away so much for free.  Churches in the US must understand the impact of their charity and direct it in ways that do not create cultures of dependence."

Lack of Respect: The second major fear voiced by Cuban leaders is the lack of respect likely to be shown to the indigenous church.  Some believe that while Americans are beginning to realize the size and depth of the church in Africa, Asia and Latin America, they remain unaware of the strength and vitality of the church in Cuba.  Babun notes that of the islands eleven million people, one million have been in an evangelical church in the last year and the numbers are growing.  Further, he notes that, "Cubans are a mission-minded people.  We have already sent evangelistic teams into the hills and beyond.  In fact, fifteen Cubans are now ministering in Haiti and other parts of Latin America.  I doubt most American Christians know this."  

Dr. Ramos is not quite as optimistic about the size of the Cuban church as Babun, commenting that while one million Cubans may have visited an evangelical church, the number who are involved is probably closer to 500,000.  But he notes that the church is growing, especially the house church movement, which now probably numbers several thousand congregations.   And he says, "it would be a big mistake for Americans to overlook the good work that is going on by Cubans in Cuba."  

So How Should American Churches Help:  Efforts to determine a set of principles to guide Western involvement in Cuba are hard to find but discussions to that end are beginning.  Recently a few scholarly articles have been published attempting to spell out the lessons learned in Eastern Europe, especially as it relates to the Co-Mission -the five year partnership that included over 80 Christian groups all attempting to make inroads into the former Soviet Union.  Additionally there is a growing belief that someone-perhaps the Carter Center or the Christian Cuba Center, a Toronto-based organization established in hopes of becoming a locus of research and analysis on Cuba-will host a consultation on Cuba.  But these are first steps their impact is unknown.

Dr. Paul Pierson, Dean Emeritus of Fuller's School of World Missions and an expert on Latin America, believes that adherence to basic missiological principles will go a long way towards avoiding problems, but he is less than optimistic that they will be followed.  "When the wall fell there were national pastors in Eastern Europe who didn't occupy their pulpit for three months because American pastors were so eager to. This is empire building and does not serve the greater good.  We need to serve Cuba by serving and supporting their national leaders whenever and wherever we can."

Graves is suggesting we go one step further and provide immediate opportunities for Cuban pastors to meet with Eastern European pastors so they can learn what to expect.  He also suggests that churches in North America understand that the best place for Cuban pastors to learn how to minister in Cuba will be Latin America, not the US.  "We can provide them with aid to that end, but we must learn to look at the world through their eyes not ours."

How much time we have to hold such consultations and try to plan for the chaos to come remains to be seen.  Castro will not hold court in Havana forever.  But he's likely to remain in power longer than we think.  After all, he's outlasted nine US Presidents so far. What's one more.